Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.008403 0.009487 0.010658 0.012019 0.013557 0.015242 0.017231
2025-12-14 0.006540 0.007996 0.009701 0.011847 0.014478 0.017603 0.021603
2025-12-21 0.005403 0.006977 0.008923 0.011511 0.014867 0.019081 0.024791
2025-12-28 0.004888 0.006602 0.008818 0.011902 0.016090 0.021597 0.029417
2026-01-04 0.004436 0.006228 0.008638 0.012124 0.017053 0.023799 0.033778
2026-01-11 0.004093 0.005949 0.008533 0.012404 0.018079 0.026131 0.038488
2026-01-18 0.003699 0.005548 0.008205 0.012314 0.018539 0.027663 0.042144
2026-01-25 0.003388 0.005231 0.007957 0.012301 0.019084 0.029334 0.046117
2026-02-01 0.003074 0.004876 0.007615 0.012101 0.019307 0.030508 0.049391
2026-02-08 0.002864 0.004661 0.007463 0.012173 0.019946 0.032358 0.053873
2026-02-15 0.002642 0.004405 0.007222 0.012074 0.020287 0.033740 0.057680
2026-02-22 0.002516 0.004294 0.007200 0.012328 0.021223 0.036156 0.063413
2026-03-01 0.002276 0.003973 0.006812 0.011939 0.021049 0.036716 0.066035
2026-03-08 0.002097 0.003741 0.006555 0.011754 0.021210 0.037862 0.069796
2026-03-15 0.001912 0.003485 0.006233 0.011421 0.021073 0.038456 0.072582
2026-03-22 0.001856 0.003454 0.006306 0.011808 0.022277 0.041559 0.080305
2026-03-29 0.001779 0.003379 0.006292 0.012029 0.023181 0.044172 0.087310
2026-04-05 0.001716 0.003323 0.006308 0.012307 0.024213 0.047100 0.095176
2026-04-12 0.001611 0.003178 0.006143 0.012218 0.024517 0.048639 0.100379
2026-04-19 0.001524 0.003060 0.006023 0.012205 0.024969 0.050497 0.106385
2026-04-26 0.001422 0.002906 0.005818 0.012006 0.025023 0.051553 0.110791
2026-05-03 0.001358 0.002824 0.005749 0.012078 0.025641 0.053806 0.117941
2026-05-10 0.001281 0.002708 0.005604 0.011979 0.025888 0.055300 0.123553